“GEGHARD”
SCIENTIFIC ANALYTICAL
FOUNDATION
2025
2025
2025-12-01
The Center of Analysis of International Relations (AIR Center), operating in Baku and conducting anti-Armenian propaganda at an expert level, actively participates as a think tank in shaping and presenting Azerbaijan’s official positions on various international agendas, as well as in promoting Baku’s foreign policy priorities across different platforms. As one of Baku’s state propaganda structures, it also closely cooperates with Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and other offices involved in foreign policy formation. The Center serves as an expert and advisory body for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Presidential Administration, and other state institutions dealing with international affairs.
The establishment of the Center
The AIR Center was established by a decree of Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev on February 6, 2019. On April 19, 2019, its charter was approved by another presidential decree, after which the Center officially began its operations. The president of Azerbaijan directly appoints and dismisses the leadership of the Center. According to the charter, the president of Azerbaijan and the board of directors oversight the activities of the Center. The AIR Center’s annually submits report to the president of Azerbaijan, who also holds the authority to dissolve or reorganize the institution.
Since 2019, Farid Shafiyev has been the head of the Center. He is among the key figures involved in shaping Azerbaijan’s foreign policy narratives, priorities, and propaganda theses, as well as presenting them to the international community. Shafiyev maintains close ties with the country’s leadership and often conveys Baku’s official positions at international events. Members of the Center’s board include Gulshan Pashayeva and Javid Valiyev.
Pashayeva specializes in conflict resolution, security studies, gender issues, and language policy.
From 2005 to 2009, Javid Valiyev worked at the Turkish Center for National Security and Strategic Studies (TUSAM), and from 2009 to 2019 at the Center for Strategic Studies under the President of Azerbaijan, where he headed the Department of Foreign Policy from 2015 to 2019. In his publications, Valiyev also promotes Baku’s propaganda theses, even falsely claiming that Armenia forcibly expelled Azerbaijanis, characterizing it as an “ethnic cleansing.
Since its founding, the AIR Center has established a broad network of partners through cooperation with other analytical centers and organizations. This is part of its strategy to strengthen its legitimacy internationally and expand the influence of Azerbaijani narratives. According to the official list of partners published on its website, the Center has signed memoranda of cooperation or established ties with around 40 analytical and academic institutions. For example, its partner institutions are the Center for Strategic Research under the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Turkey, the Center for Eurasian Studies (AVİM), and ANKASAM—the Ankara Center for Crisis and Policy Studies.
CAIR also cooperates with other analytical centers in various European countries, the United States, several South American states, Iran, Georgia, Belarus, Ukraine, Russia, China, South Korea, and the countries of Central Asia.
Objectives and Funding of the Center
According to the official website of the AIR Center, its main objective is to study key developments taking place in Azerbaijan and around the world, and to prepare research materials and reports on international issues. The goals of the Center include examining security processes and challenges in the South Caucasus, expanding the scope of research related to Azerbaijan, and discussing these studies with the international community and academic circles.
However, the English-language version of the website states that the Center’s mission is “raising the international community’s awareness of Azerbaijan’s foreign policy priorities, particularly the Armenia-Azerbaijan post-conflict period and regional security.”
CAIR prepares reports, articles, and recommendations on topics such as the Karabakh conflict, cooperation among Turkic states, security in the Black Sea and Caspian Sea regions, and Azerbaijan’s relations with Europe, Africa, Russia, the Middle East, and other centers. Nevertheless, the primary focus of the institution’s research is Armenia and the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. This is also emphasized in the presidential decree of Ilham Aliyev concerning the Center’s charter. According to that decree, one of the Center’s areas of activity is conducting research on various aspects of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and preparing recommendations and solutions related to this and other issues.
On its website, the AIR Center highlights five main projects: Post-Conflict Period: Armenia–Azerbaijan Relations, Non-Aligned Movement, Eurasian Connectivity and the Middle Corridor, Organization of Turkic States, and COP29.
The initial registered capital of the AIR Center is 100,000 manats. According to President Ilham Aliyev’s April 19, 2019 decree on the Center’s charter, the Center is funded through its charter fund, allocations from the state budget, income from its activities, donations, grants, attracted investments, and other sources permitted by law. The Center also has the right to independently manage any profits earned through its activities.
According to the financial audit data presented on the AIR Center’s website for the years 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023, the Center’s salary expenses over four years amounted to 7,581,131.86 manats (3.9 million USD). In 2023, total salary expenses reached 2,202,440.27 manats, an increase compared to 2022 (1,891,038.68 manats). The average monthly salary, which was 4,600 manats (2,350 USD) in 2020, rose to 6,350 manats (3,240 USD) in 2023.
Anti-Armenian Propaganda and Publications
The state positions of Azerbaijan regarding the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict are reflected in the analyses, articles, books, and reports published by the “AIR Center”. Armenia is often presented as the aggressor, Azerbaijan’s military operations are justified, and irredentist claims are promoted, such as the false thesis of
“Western Azerbaijan” (which official Baku calls the territory of the Republic of Armenia). Especially after the 44-day Artsakh war, the center has been actively engaged in anti-Armenia activities, justifying Azerbaijan's aggression against NK and the ethnic cleansing carried out.
Specifically, on February 5, 2025, Javid Valiyev presented his book, “Armenian Nationalist Irredentism and the Karabakh Wars.”
Ilgar Niftaliyev, deputy director of the Scientific Research Center of the Institute of History and Ethnology of the Azerbaijan National Academy of Sciences, highly praised the book’s reference to the archives of the Armenian diaspora and the works of Armenian authors. He noted that ‘the fact that the history of Karabakh was mainly studied by Armenian authors during the Soviet period contributed to the spread of Armenian irredentism’. According to him, after the restoration of Azerbaijan's independence, important research has been carried out in this area, which has been used as a component of information warfare.
In fact, Niftaliyev admits that Baku carries out such works and pseudo-research for propaganda purposes, waging an information war against Armenia.
In May 2024, the Center prepared a report titled “The Return of Azerbaijani Refugees to Armenia,” which claims to “shed light on the expulsion of Azerbaijanis from Armenia and clearly outlines policy recommendations for the return of Azerbaijanis to their homeland.” It is f emphasized that the report is “is a clear wake-up call for international policymakers and experts who raise the issue of Armenians returning to the Karabakh region of Azerbaijan while turning a blind eye to the fate of Azerbaijanis forcefully expelled from Armenia.”
In reality, the true purpose of the report is to counter and obstruct the international campaign for the return of Armenians of Artsakh by using fabricated Azerbaijani propaganda narratives, thereby justifying the ethnic cleansing of the Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh. Baku is attempting to create a “mirror” image by raising the issue of the return of Azerbaijanis to Armenia. Yerevan has repeatedly stated that “regarding Azerbaijanis living in Soviet Armenia, they voluntarily left Armenia in the final years of the USSR, managing to sell or exchange their property or receive compensation from the Armenian government. Unfortunately, the same cannot be said for the fate of Armenians in Azerbaijan—in Baku, Sumgait, and other places, where massacres and forced displacement of Armenians took place. The most recent manifestation of this in our region was witnessed by the world in the fall of 2023, when over 115,000 Armenians were forced to flee Nagorno-Karabakh subjected to ethnic cleansing.”
A report built on the same Azerbaijani theses and logic, titled “Why are there no Azerbaijanis in the modern territories of Armenia?” was presented on December 3, 2024. It was prepared jointly by the AIR Center and the Turkish Center for Eurasian Studies (AVİM).
The Center presented another notable propaganda report in November 2020 under the title “Use of Mercenaries and Foreign Fighters by Armenia Against Azerbaijan.” The report claims that there is allegedly information about Armenia’s involvement of foreign militants, including mercenaries.
What is remarkable, of course, is how the Azerbaijani state-funded analytical center shifts Baku’s own crimes onto the Armenian side, even though the UN itself has documented Azerbaijan’s use of Syrian mercenaries, with Turkey’s assistance, during the 44-day war in Artsakh.
An attempt to counter international reactions to the destruction of Armenian religious and cultural heritage, and the erasure of Armenian traces, can be seen in the AIR Center’s report titled “Armenia’s Appropriation of Azerbaijan’s Cultural and Historical Heritage,” published in July 2021.
The report claims that “it explores the different aspects of the policy of appropriation of Azerbaijani culture and heritage by Armenia. Looking first at the looting of artifacts of cultural heritage of the Karabakh region, the report will go on to review the policy of falsification of Azerbaijani monuments through the means of “Armenization” and “Persianisation” of the historical and religious monuments of Azerbaijan.”
It should be added that official Baku, remaining faithful to its decades-long practice of destroying and appropriating Armenian religious and cultural heritage in various localities of Azerbaijan and in Nakhijevan, continues this policy today in Artsakh, following the 44-day war and the ethnic cleansing carried out in September 2023. Even the December 7, 2021 decision of the International Court of Justice, has not deterred Azerbaijan from these actions. The order obligated Azerbaijan to “take all necessary measures to prevent the incitement and promotion of racial hatred and discrimination, including by its officials and public institutions, targeted at persons of Armenian national or ethnic origin”.
In parallel with the statements and actions of the Azerbaijani authorities, the Center also publishes reports and studies for international audience, promoting state propaganda theses and narratives.
On September 19, 2023, the Center’s board member Javid Valiyev published an article titled “The legal, political and military reasons behind Azerbaijan’s anti-terrorist ops,” which also appeared in the Turkish media outlet Daily Sabah.
Following the same logic, on November 23, 2023, the Center’s experts presented a report titled “The Controversy Surrounding the Lachin-Khankendi (Stepanakert) Road.” The report claims “the events that took place on the Lachin-Khankendi road over the past three years were actively promoted by Armenians under the terms "blockade", "ethnic cleansing", and "humanitarian crisis"”. Through falsification, the Azerbaijani state propaganda attempted to convince international audience, that there was no closure or blockade of the Lachin Corridor, and that there was no humanitarian crisis or ethnic cleansing in Artsakh.
The AIR Center has also issued various publications on cooperation between Armenia and different geopolitical actors, all reflecting official Baku’s grievances. Among such publications are “France–Armenia military cooperation – a double edged sword in the Caucasus,” “EU divided over Armenia–Azerbaijan normalization process,” “ India: Armenia's newfound ally against Azerbaijan,” “Military supplies to Armenia escalate tensions in the South Caucasus,” and other articles that have also been published on several international platforms.
Most recently, the Center published a book titled “The Armenian Diaspora in the Middle East: history, religion, politics, culture, media, education, and social cctivities.” It examines the Armenian diaspora in five Middle Eastern countries: Lebanon, Palestine, Syria, Egypt, and Jordan.
Anti-Armenian events
The AIR Center regularly organizes various events with anti-Armenian content. In particular, on December 10, 2024, the Center held an international conference in Baku titled “The main obstacle to the peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia.” More than 120 participants attended the event, including international and local experts as well as diplomats.
On January 31, 2025, the Center for Analysis of International Relations organized an international conference with anti-Armenian and anti-French undertones titled “France and the Armenian–Azerbaijani conflict.” The speakers accused France of adopting an explicitly pro-Armenian position, stating that whereas before 2020 France “secretly supported Armenia,” after the Second Karabakh War it began openly demonstrating its “anti-Azerbaijani stance.”
Azerbaijan’s ADA University and the AIR Center jointly organized the 7th Policy Forum in April 2025. The international forum, held under the title “Facing the New World Order,” brought together 80 international experts and representatives of analytical centers from 44 countries. Notably, the first day of the conference took place in Stepanakert, a city that had been ethnically cleansed. Azerbaijan’s president Ilham Aliyev was also present at the event.
On June 5, 2025, the Center organized an event titled “Stones Speak in Silence: Safeguarding Azerbaijan’s Heritage.” Representatives from state institutions, embassies, analytical centers, and media outlets took part in it. During the event, the Center presented the book Time to Gather Stones, which claims to show the “historical presence of Azerbaijanis as indigenous inhabitants in what is now the territory of modern-day Armenia.”
On September 29, 2025, Baku hosted the conference of analytical centers of the member states of the Organization of Turkic States called “The Organization of Turkic States as a Regional Actor in an Era of Global Uncertainty.” “Diplomatic negotiations and the normalization process between Azerbaijan and Armenia are creating new opportunities for cooperation in our region. In particular, the increasing prospects for the realization of the Zangezur Corridor pave the way for new opportunities in the fields of transport and energy among Turkic states,” said Farid Shafiyev, Chairman of the Center for Analysis of International Relations (AIR Center), during the conference.
The Center for Analysis of International Relations, under the president of Azerbaijan, continues its multi-directional anti-Armenian activity and spreads Azerbaijani propaganda narratives. The AIR Center forms an integral part of Azerbaijan’s foreign policy apparatus and remains one of its influential propaganda tools.