“GEGHARD”
SCIENTIFIC ANALYTICAL
FOUNDATION
2025
2025
All UN COP meetings have been of great importance in solving climate change issues. Some of them have had a historical impact in terms of global politics and principles. For example, the 1997 Kyoto Conference with the signing of the Kyoto Protocol, the 2015 Paris Conference with the signing of the Paris Agreement. During COP26 held in Glasgow (Scotland), United Kingdom, in 2021, the Glasgow Climate Pact was signed, which concerned the countries’ commitment to reduce coal use and the mobilization of finance.
The Paris Agreement outlined a global action plan to prevent the world from dangerous climate change, aiming to limit global temperature rise to well below 2°C. The agreement addresses climate change mitigation, adaptation, and finance. The goal of these actions is to accelerate the transition of the energy system towards low-carbon and climate-resilient economic growth.
At the 16th Conference of the Parties (COP16) in Cancun in 2010, developed countries committed to jointly mobilize $100 billion per year by 2020 to address the needs of developing countries. The decision of the 21st Conference of the Parties (COP21) in Paris in 2015 included a commitment to continue the existing collective mobilization goal through 2025. A new goal is expected to be adopted in 2025.
According to the seventh report from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) assessing progress towards the goal of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), developed countries provided and mobilized a total of $115.9 billion in climate finance for developing countries in 2022, exceeding the annual $100 billion goal for the first time. Agreements reached among developed countries at COP26 significantly contributed to achieving this climate finance goal.
Therefore, since 2022, the selection of the host country for the Conference of the Parties is linked to the opportunities and potential to mobilize the necessary 100 billion USD or even more.
In April 2024, during the climate ministers' meeting in Berlin, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said: "Finance must be the central point of this year's climate discussions," emphasizing that "public funding alone will not be sufficient." He called on some developing economies to allocate funds to combat climate change.
The Financial Times article " Climate finance must be COP29 summit priority, UN leaders say" (14-03-2024) states that this year's UN climate summit in Baku should prioritize finance and find new sources of funding to combat climate change. Many high-ranking officials, known as climate issue leaders, have already noted that the mobilization of climate finance is now the central issue of any UN Conference of the Parties meeting.
Thus, a question arises: is Azerbaijan financially attractive enough to host COP29? And the answer is: yes. Azerbaijan, an oil-rich country, has taken its first symbolic step towards mobilizing climate finance ahead of the UN COP29 summit. Ilham Aliyev established the so-called 'Climate Investment Fund for the Future,' with investments from Azerbaijan's state oil company SOCAR, aiming to raise 'at least' $500 million for green projects. Aliyev is also actively seeking friendly countries willing to invest in the fund. In particular, he has officially invited the leaders of almost all Central Asian countries to personally participate in COP29.
During the recent meeting of the leaders of Central Asian states, Uzbek President Mirziyoyev proposed that the parties take a unified position at the COP29 meeting and support the event. However, no country has yet announced its readiness to invest in the newly established fund. Moreover, no major oil and gas company has promised to do even the minimum to prevent climate chaos.
It is worth noting that the idea of a climate fund is not new. The United Arab Emirates, during the recent COP28 in Dubai, announced a $30 billion fund, aimed at mobilizing $250 billion in private sector investments for climate action by 2030. In comparison, the finance for Azerbaijan's fund is quite modest ($500 million).
Thus, COP29 should focus on the tasks of phasing out fossil fuels as defined by last year's agreement and setting a new climate finance target. Azerbaijan should support the achievement of a new goal for climate finance.
It is obvious that hosting COP29, spending large sums of money, receiving leaders and distinguished guests from friendly countries, and conducting large-scale propaganda in the international arena are not accidental and have a specific goal. Azerbaijan wants to convince the international community that, despite the fact that a significant part of its economy depends on the oil industry, the country is nevertheless introducing new technologies into the economy, is concerned about environmental protection, and is implementing green programs. Azerbaijan tries to present itself to the world as an advanced, technologically developed, democratic, non-authoritarian state that respects human rights. In other words, all this fits perfectly into the false narrative that Aliyev’s propaganda machine has been building for decades.
The reality, however, is different: Azerbaijan's level of technological, economic, ecological, and democratic development is at the lowest level, and under the Aliyev regime, no significant achievements are expected in these areas.
Nazaryan Gevorg