“GEGHARD”
SCIENTIFIC ANALYTICAL
FOUNDATION
2025
2025
What is COP29
COP is an international conference dedicated to addressing global climate challenges, held annually by the United Nations. COP is an abbreviation for the "Conference of the Parties," referring to the countries that have joined the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Parties to the treaty are obligated to undertake voluntary actions to prevent "dangerous human interference with the climate system."
At these annual conferences, representatives from governments with commitments report on their progress, set intermediate targets, sign agreements to share scientific and technological advancements for global benefit, and engage in political negotiations. In 2023, the COP28 meeting was held in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, even though the UAE is an oil-producing nation. Oil-producing countries generally tend to prioritize maintaining their oil and gas production, which contributes to rising greenhouse gas emissions. This approach, however, is at odds with the goal of "transitioning to fuels more climate-friendly than oil and gas." For instance, promoting renewable energy production globally helps to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
However, the UN COP29 summit, which Azerbaijan will host in Baku from November 11-22, 2024, is facing criticism for being held in yet another oil-producing country with a poor human rights record. The decision to hold the UN climate change conference in Azerbaijan was made in December 2023, just three months after Azerbaijan's large-scale attack on Nagorno-Karabakh and the subsequent ethnic cleansing of Armenians from Artsakh.
This conference will continue the global efforts to address climate change, building on the outcomes of previous COP meetings. The main topics of discussion at COP29 are:
The conference will also hold sessions of the Conference of the Parties dedicated to the Kyoto Protocol (CMP 19) and the Paris Agreement (CMA 6).
Azerbaijan's "climate behavior" and GHG emissions
Azerbaijan ratified the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1995 and the Kyoto Protocol in 2000. In 2016, Azerbaijan signed the Paris Agreement and ratified it in 2017. In its Nationally Determined Contributions (a climate action plan that each country submits as a requirement of the Paris Agreement), Azerbaijan stated that it aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 35% by 2030 compared to 1990 levels. Despite the signed and ratified international protocols, agreements, and the UNFCCC, Azerbaijan is unwilling to adhere to its commitments. Actions and measures primarily serve as a show for international partners.
The Paris Agreement (which Azerbaijan has signed) requires countries to publish data on reducing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere at least once every two years. However, in reality, Azerbaijan has stopped publishing data on greenhouse gas emissions since 2018. Meanwhile, GHG emissions have been steadily increasing. Not only SOCAR but also British Petroleum is contributing to the growth of emissions. The Azerbaijani authorities have justified their silence by COVID-19.
The latest official data on GHG emissions refers to 2017, when they were 38% below 1990 levels, and the energy sector accounted for 75% of total emissions. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) data, in 2017, CO2 emissions from fuel combustion in Azerbaijan amounted to 30.9 million tons (+6.6% since 2005, -42.1% since 1990). According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) data, in 2022, Azerbaijan's energy demand (measured as total energy supply) amounted to 16.1 million tons of oil equivalent. Since 2010, electricity generation in Azerbaijan has increased by more than 50%, reaching 29.0 TWh in 2022. It is mainly produced from natural gas (over 90% in 2022).
In 2021, Azerbaijan's total final consumption (excluding the transformation sector) amounted to 11.5 million tons of oil equivalent. The largest final consumption was in the household sector (4.1 MTOE in 2021). Transport, in terms of final energy consumption, is second (2.6 MTOE in 2021). Most of the petroleum products used in the transport sector are produced in Azerbaijan. Final total consumption consists mainly of natural gas (43%) and petroleum products (39%), followed by electricity (15%).
However, achieving the NDC target by 2030 will be difficult if the country fails to curb the growth of transport fuel demand (which is not checked by prices or taxes) and the growth of natural gas consumption (which is subsidized in all sectors).
In Azerbaijan, the current prices of oil, gas, and electricity supplied to final consumers are among the lowest in the region, even below the cost of supply. Moreover, according to IEA estimates, subsidies for energy in Azerbaijan in 2018 were three times higher than in 2010, amounting to 2.6 billion US dollars or 5.8% of GDP. Under such conditions of heavily subsidized tariffs, households and industrial consumers have no incentive to consume energy more efficiently. Moreover, in Azerbaijan, fuel prices are among the lowest compared to the Eurasian Economic Union (see graph below), and this fact does not provide any incentive or signal to consumers to switch to more climate-friendly fuel, such as purchasing electric vehicles, hybrid vehicles, using hydrogen fuel, compressed natural gas (CNG) or liquefied petroleum gas (LPG).
Another major source of GHG emissions is gas flaring. It occurs during oil drilling when gas burns instead of capturing, and it is a major source of carbon dioxide, methane emissions, as well as black carbon, which contribute significantly to global warming. According to the Financial Times, in 2023, the level of gas flaring in Azerbaijan was the highest in the last decade. An analysis by a group of researchers has shown that among the culprits are facilities of British Petroleum and the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan (SOCAR).
A satellite data analysis by the non-profit organization Global Witness has revealed that the volume of gas flared at oil and gas facilities in Azerbaijan has increased by 10.5% since 2018, when the country reported its greenhouse gas emissions. Such growth is significant considering the country's previous efforts to reduce flaring. For example, according to World Bank data, Azerbaijan reduced gas flaring from 333 million cubic meters per year in 2012 to 135 million cubic meters per year in 2020. However, the latest satellite data shows that since 2018, the flaring intensity has increased by more than 70%, with over 1000 individual flaring cases.
In addition to Azerbaijan's negative climate behavior, it is necessary to note the political approaches of the Azerbaijani authorities. In particular, during a high-level meeting on climate change in Berlin in April 2024, Ilham Aliyev defended the country's hydrocarbon sector, arguing that his country's "oil and gas will be needed in coming years" due to European demand.
Aliyev said that while Azerbaijan is striving to build its green energy supply infrastructure, it is also investing in gas extraction infrastructure because "Europe needs more gas" due to the "geopolitical situation." The Baku leader also called on countries with large reserves of oil and gas to be "at the forefront" of discussions on climate change. This is completely contrary to global climate policy, the approaches enshrined in the Paris Agreement, and the logic of annual climate summits.
Nazaryan Gevorg