“GEGHARD”
SCIENTIFIC ANALYTICAL
FOUNDATION
2025
2025
2024-12-11
Armenia borders Turkey’s provinces of Igdir and Kars, which are of interest to Armenian society not only for their historical significance but also for the military-political and demographic developments occurring there in modern times. Accordingly, the situation in these provinces, located in Armenia's immediate neighborhood, deserves special attention, especially in light of the potential opening of border as a result of the normalization of Armenia-Turkey relations, the role of the population in these provinces in the failure of previous normalization processes and the anti-Armenian sentiments instilled among them.
Following the collapse of the USSR in 1991, the number of Azerbaijanis in these provinces increased sharply, with significant growth from the 2000s onwards under the direct influence of Baku. This trend began in 2002 with the establishment of a park initiated by and named after Azerbaijani President Heydar Aliyev in Kars. This was followed by numerous cultural programs and, after his death, ceremonies commemorating the "great leader."
In Kars province, Azerbaijanis hold communal leadership positions, have a significant voter base, and benefit from Baku's financial and propaganda support during nationwide elections. This group, notable for its physical, economic, and political activity, is regularly mobilized in anti-Armenian initiatives, regional dealings between Turkish and Azerbaijani leaders, and electoral campaigns. Specifically, the Azerbaijani authorities, in addition to leveraging the Nagorno-Karabakh issue and threatening to suspend energy supplies, frequently apply pressure on Ankara through their compatriots residing in Turkey's Kars and Igdir provinces to obstruct the normalization of relations with Armenia or the opening of borders.
One vivid example is the wave of protests that began in 2009 in Kars and Igdir during the Armenia-Turkey "football diplomacy," instigated by local Azerbaijani organizations. In response, Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan, pressured by Baku's provocations during the local elections campaign, declared that the Nagorno-Karabakh issue could not be ignored, signaling the suspension of the normalization process with Armenia.
In 2011, on the eve of Turkey's parliamentary elections, the Azerbaijani side again employed the same tactics, opposing the installation of the "Monument to Humanity" in Kars, dedicated to friendship and reconciliation with Armenia. As a result, fearing defeat in the elections and under pressure from local Azerbaijanis, Erdogan called the monument "monstrous" (ucube) and ordered the demolition of the already constructed monument. Although the country's leader later paid a fine for defamation following a court ruling, the Azerbaijani factor in Kars and Igdir strengthened as a key driving force for Baku's pressure on Turkey regarding the Nagorno-Karabakh issue and its threats toward Armenia.
In 2019, Azerbaijani students of the Kafkas University in Kars organized a protest against the visit of a delegation from the organizing committee of the "Pan-Armenian Games," calling on the local Kurdish population to join their demonstration. Following the 2020 war and the occupation of Artsakh, a memorial exhibition dedicated to Azerbaijani casualties was held in Kars, proclaimed as an event honoring the "martyrs of the Turkic world."
Later, on July 3, 2024, the Kars Municipality, the Federation of Turkish-Azerbaijani Associations (TADEF), and the Azerbaijani State Committee for Work with the Diaspora organized the "Return to Western Azerbaijan" conference in Kars. During the event, they revisited the so-called “crimes committed by Armenian bands in Eastern Anatolia during 1918-1920,” claiming that “the residents of Kars and what is now referred to as Armenia, formerly Western Azerbaijan, were also victims of bloody Armenian attacks during those years”.
In this context, the deliberate efforts to intensify anti-Armenian sentiments among the Kurdish and Azerbaijani populations of Kars are particularly concerning, especially as they are accompanied by false accusations against Armenia and Armenians. Such propaganda-driven “military-patriotic” programs have gained further ground among the local Azerbaijani community, particularly from 2020-2021 onwards, with the increased frequency of Turkish-Azerbaijani joint winter military exercises in the Kars province.
Thus, ome can assert that Azerbaijan will continue to use the Azerbaijani populations in Kars and Igdir to serve its interests and secure a certain level of influence.