Snap parliamentary elections in Azerbaijan, Aliyev's method of power reproduction

- Fill it, fill it, fill a lot, do it quickly.
- Ah, it's not possible. The slot is narrow.
- It's not narrow, if you shove in ten at a time, they won’t go through.

A few days ago parliamentary snap elections were held in Azerbaijan. According to official data, about 6,421,960 citizens have the right to vote in the country, and 990 candidates were competing for 125 parliamentary seats. As expected, the election results show that Ilham Aliyev's "Yeni Azerbaijan" ("New Azerbaijan") party leads with 68 seats. Another 44 seats were obtained by "independent deputies," who are in fact loyal to the authorities, while representatives of various parties that are not considered real opposition, received 12 seats. Only one seat was won by a representative of the opposition "REAL" party. The opposition party "Azerbaijan Popular Front Party" boycotted the elections again, and no deputy from the "Musavat" party was elected.

The authorities managed to secure the desired result through the use of administrative levers and traditional election violations - ballot box stuffing and the so-called "carousel" type of election fraud. The electoral process took place while hindering and limiting the activities of media, activists, oppositionists, and observers. Before the elections, the activities of the opposition were obstructed during the campaign, and one of the observers from the "Musavat" party who informed about violations was escorted to the police station.

Similar to the February 2024 presidential snap elections, these parliamentary elections were held without PACE observers. Baku justified not inviting the latter by claiming that the Council of Europe and PACE conduct a biased policy towards Azerbaijan. PACE observers will be able to monitor Azerbaijan's elections when Azerbaijan's mandate is restored (in January 2024, PACE did not ratify the credentials of Azerbaijan's delegation).

It was also noteworthy that voter turnout in the elections was 37.27%. This indicates that in the conditions of predetermined election results and the absence of expectations for positive changes in the country's socio-economic conditions, a significant part of Azerbaijani society is not interested in participating in the elections. Moreover, according to the opposition, the real turnout was lower than officially announced. Representatives of the "Musavat" party said that in some polling stations there were no voters for hours.

"Only in some regions due to the efforts of individual activists the participation of voters was relatively active. In reality, the turnout was less than 10% - 7-8%, but this figure was achieved not through voluntary participation, but through administrative pressure. The CEC's announced turnout of about 38% has nothing to do with reality," Ali Karimli, leader of the opposition "National Front" party said.

According to Bashir Suleymanov, director of the Institute for Civil Rights, one of the reasons for the low voter turnout is the population's distrust in fair elections. "Second, after the Karabakh war, the population expected positive changes in the economy and improvement of living conditions, but this did not happen, and the country's socio-economic problems only deteriorated. Third, there is no competition and no alternative," Suleymanov emphasized.

In recent years, holding snap elections has been one of the means for Azerbaijan's authorities to reproduce their power as smoothly as possible. In this way, presidential elections were held in 2018 and 2024, and parliamentary snap elections in 2020 and 2024.

The holding of parliamentary snap elections in Azerbaijan was justified by the fact that ahead of the UN Climate Change Conference (COP-29) to be held in Baku, the parliament "must function in full capacity". In reality, through snap elections, the authorities are trying to eliminate competition by not giving the opposition any opportunity to prepare for these elections. On the other hand, as public discontent is growing, Aliyev wants to secure his positions in parliament as quickly as possible.

"The National Front does not consider the September 1 elections as an election, but as a cheap farce, the outcome of which was predetermined and planned according to Ilham Aliyev's personal wishes," - this is how the opposition "National Front" party, which also boycotted the 2015 and 2020 parliamentary elections, characterized the elections. The party's Supreme Council justified the boycott of the elections by the fact that "more than 300 political prisoners have not yet been released, there is no freedom of assembly, electoral commissions are under the tight control of the authorities, it is impossible to control the voting and vote counting process, the free press has been eliminated, it is impossible to monitor elections with independent local observers, free competition and electoral environment are absent."

The OSCE observation mission also addressed the lack of competition in the elections. "These elections took place in a restrictive political and legal environment that does not enable genuine pluralism and resulted in a contest devoid of competition.," the OSCE observers' statement emphasized.

Azerbaijan's opposition has declared that it does not accept the election results, calling on the international community to take steps to implement democratic reforms in Azerbaijan. In essence, Azerbaijan's authorities are moving towards consolidating autocracy, and any international response devoid of practical steps will not in any way halt this process.

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